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2023-04-12 00:08:00 ET Summary A negative US 10-year minus 3-month yield spread has signalled every incoming recession of the last 60 years. In the real world, global PC shipments were -29% year over year in the first quarter, and the average work week in March’s payroll re...
2023-04-11 05:30:00 ET Summary As long as banks have existed, banks have failed, just like other companies have failed, even the most splendid ones. Special servicing rates are a precursor for potential defaults for CRE mortgages that have been securitized into CMBS. CRE is un...
2023-04-06 12:17:05 ET Long-term mortgages continued on the downward trajectory as the market enters the spring homebuying season, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.28% in the week ending April 6, down from last week when t...
2023-04-06 09:40:00 ET Summary Coming out of January 2023's improvement, we had anticipated lower mortgage rates recorded in February 2023 would lead to a lower median new home's mortgage payment. After dipping to a revised 39.3% in January 2023, the mortgage payment for a median ...
2023-04-04 05:16:00 ET Summary The way we understand the tech economy is changing dramatically. While we can’t be sure if it is or is not too soon to enter the highest-quality REIT space, we know for sure it is not too late. Near-term challenges create volatility; long-...
2023-04-04 03:05:00 ET Summary Many of last winter’s biggest worries don’t look so bad in the spring. The few big bank failures didn’t explode into a massive bank run. The solution to un-stressing the banking system is simple: the Fed has to un-invert the Trea...
2023-04-04 02:30:00 ET Summary Markets are liquidity junkies and repeatedly anticipate that central banks will pause and return to easing credit conditions. Equities historically don’t bottom until after a recession is recognized and central banks near the end of easing eff...
2023-04-03 17:20:16 ET Summary The US homebuilding stocks represented by the two ETFs (ITB and XHB) are up +10% YTD. We think this move doesn’t make sense as the fundamentals have not improved and the macro backdrop is still not supportive. The fundamental picture could...
2023-04-03 06:52:27 ET Summary Skyrocketing inflation has led to sharply higher interest rates. Higher rates have important implications for investment markets and securities. A look as to how higher rates impact real estate, REITs, and VNQ follows. Skyrocketing infl...
2023-03-31 03:00:00 ET Summary The world would be a lot easier for central bankers if things moved in a straight line. China has opened much more or has reopened much more rapidly than we would’ve expected. We’re pretty optimistic about what we think fixed-income...
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2024-06-25 18:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 19:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-15 05:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...