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By Richard Brink and Walt Czaicki These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today's market conditions that may require...
By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA On last week's episode of the "Behind the Markets" podcast, Liqian Ren and I were joined by Steve Cordasco, CEO of Cordasco Financial Network, and Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. We engaged in a wide-ranging disc...
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that despite the market turbulence witnessed in the past several months, as well as a dramatic policy reversal, we find ourselves at a moment of remarkable economic stability. That fact, along with greater policy accommodation and capacity, argues for heal...
A spate of recent extreme weather events - from hurricanes and wildfires in the U.S. to heat waves in Europe - has put a spotlight on climate-related risks. Yet, climate-related portfolio risks have been hard to pinpoint - until recently. Advances in climate and data science now allow us to as...
Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects. Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed ...
By Anujeet Sareen, CFA The Bearish View of the Global Economic Cycle Federal Reserve Policy A good place to start evaluating the bearish case for global growth is to consider policy changes at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). As we know, the Fed raised interest rates by over 200 basis...
By Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki and Chris Marx Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother ...
By Vitor Gaspar, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, John Ralyea, Senior Economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, and Elif Ture, Economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department Economic growth is slowing, and public debt remains high across th...
We are going to begin this week with our annual value lesson. For those of our readers that have not read this before, we hope you enjoy this lesson and we hope that you gain some very keen insight as to what constitutes value and what constitutes individualistic, "because I can" mentality. Fi...
The IMF becomes the latest mainstream organization to abandon the recovery. It wasn't really much of one to begin with, mostly just the hope that an uptick in growth would lead to the long sought, and necessary, completion. Globally synchronized growth in 2017 was supposed to mean a plausible ...