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The pace of global economic growth remained stuck at a three-year low in June, according to the latest PMI surveys from IHS Markit, rounding off the worst quarterly expansion since the second quarter of 2016. Both employment growth and cost pressures also hit the weakest since 2016, while futu...
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that while most investors are focusing primarily on trade-related supply chain disruptions today, they need to continue to situate this turmoil in the more fundamental changes at play in technology and demographic trends. Myopia in life/death and in inv...
Tensions in the Persian Gulf - the world's key oil exporting region - have risen sharply. Yet, oil trades well below its late-2018 peaks - and oil-related equities have lagged the broader market. What explains the disconnect? We delve into both short-term and long-term oil market fundamentals,...
By Carmel Corbett Wellso Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains how staying focused on company fundamentals can help investors cope with uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions and an aging business cycle. After a brief reprieve, volatility has returned to equity markets. This...
By Kristina Hooper , Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: Trade wars remain a concern for the economy, but central banks appear poised to help The Federal Reserve (Fed) met last week and clearly telegraphed that it will no longer be "patient" and that it is leaning ...
By Jeffrey Kleintop In the second half of the year, stock markets around the world will likely have to contend with slowing global economic growth. Leading indicators point to the rising risk of recession. Pressures are building up that may weigh on stock markets, including: escalating...
If you have nothing left, it can sound like a winning argument, but you have to really try hard enough. In October 2015, with another false dawn dawning on the public, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote and op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal . As had become his habit...
By IMFBlog Where will the next financial crisis come from? The short answer is: We don't know. We can, however, look for vulnerabilities in the system that, if left untreated, can develop into problems. What do we mean by a vulnerability? It is an area of weakness that can amplify and sp...
By John Pattullo After quantitative easing (QE) failed to generate sustainable growth or inflation, the dial has turned to fiscal policy. John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, argues that a successful formula must combine fiscal and monetary policies, as well as structural ref...
By Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA; Reina Berlien The economies of Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa have undergone an important structural shift since the 1990s, where private consumption has overtaken government spending and exports as the main contributor to GDP. On the surface, c...