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A lot of focus, talk, and frankly noise has emanated around a widely expected Fed rate cut at the end of this month. But the discerning observer will note that the Powell Pivot is actually part of a wider global monetary policy pivot. This has been a key theme for us and, in our view, is a key...
Catherine Kress: Markets are sending pretty mixed signals. At the end of 2018, we saw a downturn, yet in the first half of 2019, we've seen the stock market rally against a backdrop of incredible volatility in the international environment. This geopolitical whiplash looks set to continue ...
Quite a week! Powell all but assured a rate cut in July; the yield curve steepened; the dollar weakened; trade talks with China opened; commodity prices increased; and stock markets rose. Doesn't it sound like our playbook the last few weeks? What more can the pundits say who have been so ne...
By IMFBlog Over the past two decades, most of the changes in bilateral trade balances - the difference in the value of exports and imports between two countries - were explained by macroeconomic factors, according to IMF research. These factors include fiscal policy, demographics, and we...
By Bluford Putnam Who's paying the tariffs, or taxes really, in the trade war? Someone is, and it could be detrimental to global trade and growth, and inflict economic pain. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
By Sharon Fay, Christopher Hogbin Global equities advanced in the second quarter, but the path was rocky. Incoming earnings reports will provide important clues about how companies are coping with mounting challenges - from trade wars to global growth - and how investors should position. ...
BRIC PMIs for June are out and with them we have 2Q 2019 figures, and the story they tell is two-fold: Fold 1: There is an ongoing Global-scale slowdown in the economy that is broad, sharp and testing the waters of a mild recession approaching. Fold 2: The BRICs are barely providing any ...
The Trump tariffs may not only be hurting economies, but also weakening the entire global trading system. Kim Parlee speaks with Chuck Gastle, lawyer and international trade litigator at Bennett Gastle on how that could spell more trouble Read more ...
Worldwide PMI surveys indicated a deterioration of manufacturing business conditions for a second successive month in June, with the health of the sector declining at the fastest rate since October 2012. Output, new orders, exports, inventories, backlogs of work and employment all fell durin...
The pace of global economic growth remained stuck at a three-year low in June, according to the latest PMI surveys from IHS Markit, rounding off the worst quarterly expansion since the second quarter of 2016. Both employment growth and cost pressures also hit the weakest since 2016, while futu...