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By Erik Knutzen The events and data of recent weeks make us want to err on the side of caution. Our Asset Allocation Committee’s quarterly Outlook will come out this week, and the headline is that members see a return to “two-tier growth.” The last time we used...
This article posits that there is an unpleasant conjunction of events beginning to undermine government finances in advanced nations. They combine the arrival of a long-term trend of rising welfare commitments with an increasing certainty of a global-scale credit crisis, in turn the outcome o...
By Sharon Fay, Christopher Hogbin Global stocks advanced in the third quarter, but investor sentiment wobbled amid puzzling signals on macroeconomic growth and monetary policy. Political uncertainty and a cloudier outlook point to more volatility, which should compel investors to intensify...
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Quantitative Investment Strategist Abraham Robison and Rob Cittadini, senior director, U.S. institutional, discussed contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector, the U.S. employment report for September and the importance of a globally dive...
October 1, 2019 This morning we have further confirmation of the global downturn spreading with the US ISM manufacturing index contracting to 47.8 in September (50.1 was the consensus expectation); the second month in a row that the reading was under 50 (49.1 in August). This was the steep...
By Jeffrey Kleintop Global central banks moved quickly from raising interest rates in the second half of last year back to cutting rates in 2019. Central banks have been increasingly lowering interest rates this year, as you can see in the chart below. Central banks increasingly shif...
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight their view that effective monetary and fiscal policy in the 21st century needs to draw not only traditional economic theory, but also from the lessons of finance and other disciplines. We think the evidence is mounting that the global financial econ...
Recession risks are rising as trade tensions depress global manufacturing and the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve signals warning. While we're cautious for now, a combination of central bank easing, a trade-war truce and China stimulus could brighten the outlook. Key market themes ...
In the past 18 months, business sentiment and growth projections have been deteriorating significantly due to three main risk factors: global monetary tightening (Fed 225bps of rate hike + 800bn USD of QT), a tightening of credit in China and elevated uncertainty amid trade war dispute. Figure...
By Mike Pyle, Elga Bartsch, Kurt Reiman, Beata Harasim A rebound in bond yields has led to a shakeup in equity market factor returns. U.S. value has recovered and momentum stumbled. Can this factor rotation last? We think it is too early to call for a value revival – and prefer def...