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Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Despite slowing activity, global inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices. As advanced economies raise interest rates to fight inflation, financial ...
Full employment does not imply the disappearance of all unemployment as there could still be structural unemployment. A pause in rate hikes is not a true pause but rather a reduction in the pace of overall tightening if the Fed carries on with QT. Ultimately, things boil down to w...
Economic fluctuations can result from swings on the demand side (total nominal expenditures) or the supply side (general productive conditions). On the demand side, we should keep nominal expenditure as steady as we can. On the supply side, we should keep taxes low and regulation ...
We’ve had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but what’s happening under the hood? The hangover of pandemic policies like lockdowns, in addition to fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies animated by ideology rather than sound economic principles, are bear...
Over the course of the first six months of the year, real GDP declined by 0.63%. Today, the economy is only about 2.2% below its most recent trend, but it is a gigantic 26% below its long-term trend. Recession Lite seems like an apt descriptor for today's economy, because a lot of...
The final July results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment remained near record lows. The one-year inflation expectations fell to 5.2 percent as of late July. The plunge in consumer attitudes reflects a confluence of events with inf...
I look at the conditions for buying that were stated in the previous article. Those conditions have now been satisfied. I show how you can buy the bottom with relative safety. On June 16, I posted an article on Seeking Alpha, “How To Tell When the Bear Market ...
The S&P 500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down 11.0%). The Transports advanced 5.8% (down 11.3%). Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $2.442 billion, whi...
At this moment, the difference between GDP and GDI has no historical precedent, and the GDI, in the first quarter, came with a positive number, while the GDP fell. As suggested by the resilience of private consumption in the second quarter, the labor market remained tight. Markets...
Inflation is still high, but it is no longer accelerating rapidly, and evidence of increasingly fragile economic activity is piling up. The headline surveys have weakened materially, especially in Europe, and the US economy entered a technical recession in the first half of the year. ...
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2024-05-15 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 12:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-15 21:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...