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At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...
The July 10 "Blue Chip" consensus is that GDP grew at a 1.1% annual rate in Q2. However, based on the most recent data, S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that GDP fell 1.8% during the quarter. While recent commodity price pressures will ease or, in some cases, reverse as su...
Core inflation now appears broadly entrenched across goods and services, which should solidify Fed officials’ confidence that restrictive policy is appropriate. June headline CPI increased 1.3% month-over-month, firmer than consensus expectations. Despite June’s data...
The ClearBridge Recession Risk dashboard is a group of 12 variables that identify inflection points for the US economy. The risks of recession are continuing to elevate. In the middle of last month, we updated our recession odds to 55% over the next 18 months. The key question for...
The most recent headline CPI came in at 9.1% so it might seem odd to think that the risk of disinflation and deflation is rising. But while the CPI is a rear-view looking indicator, many forward-looking indicators are starting to tell a very different story – a story of falling...
Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...
An investment in Nigeria or Turkey clearly exposes a firm or investor to more risks than an otherwise similar investment in Germany or Canada, but why? While country risk has so many dimensions to it, there is correlation across the many dimensions, with corruption, poor legal protect...
While the decline in the broad stock market over the first half of this year has led many to believe the current bear market is just that old, it may be important to note that many of the most popular stocks in the market peaked and rolled over well before the major indexes did. In fa...
Pundits often discuss bad news being good news and good news being bad news. They are referring to the phenomenon in which the market seems to move opposite the directionality of the news. This article discusses why that happens and how to take advantage of it. Any time the ...
High demand and the unexpected shift within the economy left a deficit of workers, increasing bargaining power and inflation risks. Supply disruptions in the labor market increased wages at their fastest rate in decades. Soaring inflation initiated a hawkish shift from the Fed, in...
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2024-07-25 17:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-25 19:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 20:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...