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Initial jobless claims have started to rise with the monthly average in July around 40% higher than the average in March. Three regional Fed PMIs (Philadelphia, Texas, and New York) are seeing declines in the Future Employment component of the survey. Job openings fell by -600,000...
After reaching the highest level in over a month last week, bullish sentiment fell back down to 27.7%. At 40%, bearish sentiment is at the lowest level since the first week of June, with this week being the third sequential decline in a row. Neutral sentiment has risen to 32.2%, t...
Initial jobless claims continue to disappoint. Although this week’s release technically fell down to 256K, it was from a 10K upwardly revised number of 261K last week. The pandemic was a volatile time period for jobless claims data as readings rose into the millions. July t...
While this is a technical recession, the Fed is correct to say we aren't in a "real" recession yet since unemployment is still falling and consumers are still spending. Consumers remain under real pressure as inflation puts the squeeze on spending power while the plunge in equity mark...
The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at -0.9%, an increase from -1.6% for the Q1 Third Estimate. A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.29%. Eleven of twelv...
Powell acknowledged a slowing economy and expectations for more short-term interest rate hikes eased. That's all it took to set a fire under risk assets. The durable goods report for June strengthens my resolve we will see growth in the second quarter GDP report. A soft landin...
Investors hoping that the Fed will reverse course on higher interest rates anytime soon are misguided. The market is not currently pricing in the probability of rate cuts in any meaningful way over the next year. Inflation pressures may persist beyond expectations. The Fed's h...
A rough consensus amongst economists and investors is that U.S. rates need to push beyond 2.5% to start to cool the economy down. The Fed might stick a perfect soft landing - where inflation moderates back down to 2% and economic activity bends but doesn’t break - but it is not...
The Fed met market expectations with a unanimous 75 basis-point hike. FOMC lifted the federal funds rate to the 2.25% to 2.50% range and will continue its balance sheet runoff. Fed updated its language to reflect recent economic data, stating that "indicators of spending and produ...
Powell said that policy interest rates are now in the neutral range, the economy has started to weaken, and that the full impact of the rate hikes delivered so far has yet to be felt. Powell also said that the FOMC’s June views on the likely path of rates still stand, and those...
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2024-07-25 17:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-25 19:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 20:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...