NAVI - 13 Buyable Inflation-Busting November Dividend Stocks

2023-11-15 08:51:57 ET

Summary

• March-April, 2022, UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's analysts and reporters combined to list five sets of stocks sorted as: “Inflation Busters.” Those five articles revealed 48 equities, with 43 paying dividends.
• Article titles were, ’24 Pricing Power Performers’ [UBS]; ‘7 REITs Raising Dividends’ [KIP]…; '10 Stocks for Rising Interest Rates’ [KIP]…; ‘5 Stocks to Stave-off Sizzling Inflation”[KIP]…; ‘6 Dividend Stocks Whip Inflation…[Barron’s]’.
• November 2023, those 48 top inflation-busting stocks ranged 0.03% to 13.17% in annual yield and ranged -3.43% to 54.64% in one-year price-target-upsides per broker-analysts.
• Top-ten Inflation-Busting Dividend stocks boasted net gains from 30.32% to 59.79% per YCharts forward-looking data 11/10/23.
• $5k invested in the November lowest-priced five of ten top-yield Inflation-Busters showed 26.38% LESS net gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Big (higher-priced) stocks led the field by near three and two-thirds lengths in this inflation zombie-busting November pack.

Foreword

This article is based on five UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's articles, aimed at finding “Inflation Busting”, stocks since 2022. The author believes these stock suggestions are prescient into the year 2024 as banks, lenders, and crypto exchanges succumbed to rising fed interest rates, while the inflation zombies persisted. The title and links to the articles follow:

24 Pricing Power Performers

"With inflation pressures surging, pricing power relative to cost exposures will be a key theme and source of [absolute outperformance] for global equity markets," writes the UBS Equity Strategy team.—by: Dan Burrows April 14, 2022

12 REITS with Rising Dividends

REIT dividends are expected to post double-digit percentage growth this year, making the yield-friendly sector all the more attractive.—by: Lisa Springer April 13, 2022

10 Stocks for Rising Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve has signaled in no uncertain terms that interest rates will head higher in 2022. Here are 10 of the best stocks for this environment. —by: Jeff Reeves April 4, 2022

5 Stocks To Stave Off Sizzling inflation

Income investors like utility stocks for their stability and generous dividends. Here are 12 top-rated ones to watch in the new year. —by: Dan Burrows February 10, 2022

6 Dividend Stocks Whip Inflation

The hot new investment theme isn’t socially nuanced crypto space finance or metaverse charging networks for virtual vehicles. It’s dividends—cash payments to shareholders.

To find more dividend growers, Barron’s used an approach inspired by the Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, or path of expected interest rate hikes ( subscription needed ). They screened the S&P 500 for companies that analysts predict will increase payments nicely in the years ahead. They came up with six. —By Jack Hough Updated April 24, 2022 / Original April 22, 2022

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dogcatcher) analysis, this collection of UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's articles, aimed at identifying “Inflation-Busting”, stocks is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Below are the 48 November 10, 2023 “Zombie-Inflation-Busters” as parsed by YCharts.

The prices of 13 of these 48 made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.

Those 13 Dogcatcher Ideal “Inflation Busting” stocks for November are: Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. ( ABR ); AllianceBernstein Holding ( AB ); Ares Capital Corp ( ARCC ); British American Tobacco p.l.c. ( BTI ); Hasbro, Inc. ( HAS ); NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. ( NXRT ); BHP Group Ltd ( BHP ); VICI Properties Inc. ( VICI ); Fifth Third Bancorp ( FITB ); Pfizer Inc. ( PFE ); The AES Group ( AES ); HP Inc. ( HPQ ); Navient Corp ( NAVI ).

Those thirteen all live up to the ideal of annual dividends from $1K invested exceeding their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as "look closer to maybe buy" opportunity.

In a ranking of one-year price action of the top 30 Inflation busters by yield, four of the Ideal selections stood out: BHP Group; Hasbro Inc; British American Tobacco; NexPoint Residential Trust.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 30.32% To 59.79% ‘ Inflation Busting’ Dividend Top 10 Net Gains By November 2024

Four of ten top “Inflation Buster” dividend stocks by yield were also among the top-ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, the yield-based forecast for these November dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 40% accurate.

Estimated dividends from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding ”Inflation Buster” stocks, added to the median of aggregate one-year target prices from analysts (as reported by YCharts), generated the following results. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not included. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to November 2024 were:

NexPoint Residential Trust was projected to net $597.89, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 6 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 11% over the market as a whole.

Hasbro Inc was projected to net $511.74, based on the median of target price estimates from 12 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 23% less than the market as a whole.

British American Tobacco was projected to net $475.34 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from 3 brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 43% less than the market as a whole.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. ( ARE ) was projected to net $442.69, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 12 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility equal to the market as a whole.

Pfizer Inc was projected to net $422.80, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 22 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 37% under the market as a whole.

AllianceBernstein Holding LP was projected to net $380.66, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from 5 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 30% over the market as a whole.

The AES Corp was projected to net $363.51, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 11 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 7% greater than the market as a whole.

CVS Health Corp ( CVS ) was projected to net $341.67 based on the median of target price estimates from 21 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.

Discover Financial Services ( DFS ) was projected to net $329.86, based on the median of target estimates from 10 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% greater than the market as a whole.

AstraZeneca PLC ( AZN ) was projected to net $303.17, based on the median of estimates from 10 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 41.77% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 13% under the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

48 Inflation Busters For 2023-24 Per November Analyst Target Data

48 Inflation Busters 2023-24 By November Yields

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Inflation Busters By Yield For November 2023-24 (The Top Dogs)

Top ten 2023-24 “Inflation Busting” stocks by yield in October represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place went to the first of three real estate sector representatives, Arbor Realty Trust Inc. [1]. The other two placed sixth and eighth, VICI Properties Inc [8], and NexPoint Residential Trust [6].

Three slots were claimed by financial services sector members: Ares Capital Corp [3]; AllianceBernstein Holding LP [2]; Fifth Third Bancorp [10].

Two consumer defensive stocks took the fourth and ninth slots on this list, British America Tobacco PLC [4], and Philip Morris International Inc. ( PM ) [9].

Fifth place was claimed by the single consumer cyclical representative, Hasbro Inc [5]; then seventh slot went to the lone basic materials rep in the top ten, BHP Group Ltd [7], to complete the top ten “Inflation Busters” for 2023-24 dividend pack as of November 10.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Top “Inflation Buster” Dividend Payer s For 2023-24 Showed 26.45%-54.64% Upsides While (31) One -22.7% Down-sider Was Recorded For November

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, median analyst target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 36.38% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, of 10 Inflation Busting Stocks for November 2023-24

Ten top UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's dividend selections, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busters” for 2023-24 were culled by yield 11/10/23 for this update. Yield (dividend / price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's dividend selections, aimed at finding the best Inflation Buster stocks, as screened 11/10/23, showing the highest dividend yields, represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Inflation Buster Dividend Stocks for 2023-24 (32) Delivering 18.71% Vs. (33) 29.41% Net Gains by All Ten Come November 2024

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's dividend selections, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busters” for 2022-23 by yield, were predicted, by analyst 1-year targets, to deliver 36.38% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The sixth lowest-priced selection, NexPoint Residential Trust Inc, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 59.79%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's dividend selections, aimed at finding “Inflation Busters” as of November 10 were: Arbor Realty Trust Inc; Ares Capital Corp; Fifth Third Bancorp; AllianceBernstein Holding LP; VICI Properties Inc, with prices ranging from $13.06 to $28.46.

Five higher-priced UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's dividend selections, aimed at finding “Inflation Busters” as of November 10 were: NexPoint Residential Trust; British American Tobacco PLC; Hasbro Inc; BHP Group Ltd; Philip Morris International Inc, whose prices ranged from $30.07 to $89.70.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten projected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of expected gains, based on analyst targets, added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Afterword

This article features 48 UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron's “Inflation Buster“ selections for 2023-24. The article focuses on the top 30, or so, dividend payers. Thus, nearly one-third of the original list of companies is neglected. Therefore, below is the complete list of 48 stocks grouped by source.

If somehow you missed the suggestion of which stocks are ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

The prices of 13 of these 48 Kiplinger, and Barron's dividend selections, as “Inflation Buster”, stocks for 2023-24 made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.

Those 13 Dogcatcher ideal “inflation Busting” dividend stocks for November are:

Those 13 all live up to the ideal of having their annual dividends from a $1K investment exceed their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as "look closer to maybe buy" opportunity.

In a ranking of one-year price action of the top 30 Inflation busters by yield, four of the Ideal selections stood out: BHP Group; Hasbro Inc; British American Tobacco; NexPoint Residential Trust.

How Ten Top “Inflation Buster” 2023-24 Stocks Could Become Ideal Fair Priced Dogs

Since nine of the top-ten Kiplinger, and Barron's “Inflation Buster”, stocks for 2023 shares are now priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the above charts compare those nine plus one at recent prices.

The dollar and percentage differences between recent and fair prices are detailed in the top chart. The recent prices are shown in the middle chart with the fair pricing of all ten top dogs conforming to the dogcatcher ideal detailed in the bottom chart.

With renewed downside market pressure to 20%, it is possible for all ten highest-yield UBS, Kiplinger & Barron's Inflation Busting Dividend stocks, to become fair-priced with their annual yield (from $1K invested) meeting or exceeding their single share prices. This pack got a huge head-start with nine of ten already fair priced.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

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