COM - A Short Term Bearish Trading Plan Within A Long Term Macro View

• While I am inarguably bearish on risk-assets and believe long USD is a better bet than long commodities currently, it is not a permanent view.
• Rather, it is a reflection of the current valuations, macro fundamentals, central bank policies.
• I believe the problems which have short-circuited the global recovery repeatedly since 2008 have yet to be fixed.
• These include market tantrums every time the Fed attempts to exit QE, a slowing Chinese economy as well as stagflationary problems in emerging markets ex-China - placing those EM central banks in a policy bind to defend their currencies at the expense of employment and growth.
• Once the roadblock is cleared meaning the Fed successfully tapers, China hard-lands and resets through a banking system recapitalization and an actual synchronized and intermediate-term sustainable global growth recovery takes hold, I will move forward to being long commodities / short USD.

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