SPY - AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Decreases

2023-10-19 16:13:18 ET

Summary

• Bullish sentiment decreased 5.9 percentage points to 34.1%.
• Neutral sentiment rose 7.8 percentage points to 31.3%.
• Bearish sentiment fell 1.9 percentage points to 34.6%.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism fell but remains above average.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.9 percentage points to 34.1%. Optimism is below its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in six weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 7.8 percentage points to 31.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the fourth time in seven weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 1.9 percentage points to 34.6%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the fifth time in seven weeks.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 4.1 percentage points to –0.5%. The bull-bear spread remains below its historical average of 6.4% for the sixth time in seven weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what information they are particularly paying attention to as companies are reporting third-quarter earnings:

• Guidance on future revenues and earnings: 27.2%
• Whether earnings were better or worse than expected: 25.1%
• Sales and/or earnings growth: 21.0%
• Fundamentals such as the balance sheet or cash flow: 18.9%
• Other: 6.2%

This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 34.1%, down 5.9 percentage points
• Neutral: 31.3%, up 7.8 percentage points
• Bearish: 34.6%, down 1.9 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 37.5%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 31.0%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987.

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