SAM - Boston Beer is viewed cautiously by Cowen with sales momentum slowing

Cowen lowered its estimates on Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM) after five months of scanner data from Nielsen channels left the firm increasingly skeptical that the beer giant will be able to deliver FY23 guidance for shipment growth of +4 to +10% on top of the benefit of three to five points of price/mix. Analyst Vivien Azer: "SAM's YTD trends from scanner data have not been good. To be sure, there is a seasonality component, with 1Q being historically smaller, which informed the guidance hold in 1Q22 (despite a reported 21% revenue decline). And, comps are getting easier. But, despite those easing comparisons, the two-year stack for SAM's total sales has fallen significantly from 64% in January to 12% in May." Of note, the hard seltzer slowdown continues to worsen for SAM, with YTD sales down 6.3%, per Nielsen data. Azer and team also remain watchful of the incremental impact from new

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Boston Beer is viewed cautiously by Cowen with sales momentum slowing