TECH - Comtech (CMTL) - Near-Term Bumps Obscuring Long-term Potential
2Q22 Results. Revenue of $120.4 million, down 25.4% y-o-y, but was up 3.1% sequentially. We had forecast $125 million, same as consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.8 million, or an 8.1% margin, down from $18.1 million and 11.2% last year. GAAP loss was $23.5 million, or $0.89 per share versus net income of $4.2 million, or $0.17 per share in 2Q21. Non GAAP EPS loss was $0.03 versus Non-GAAP EPS of $0.27 last year. We had forecast a GAAP loss of $3.5 million, or $0.13 per share.More Bumps in the Road. The operating environment continues to be challenging. The latest is Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. Not only is this pushing out a major troposcatter contract with the Ukraine, but other governments around the world are moving to purchasing war making equipment rather than Comtech's products.But Long-term Remains Bright. Despite the challenging current environment, Comtech's long-term prospects remain bright, in our opinion. Both the NG 911 business and the satellite ground station equipment markets are in the early innings of a long-term investment and upgrade cycle and should see significant growth over the next four to seven years. Updated Projections. The above resulted in management reducing full year expectations to $520 million of revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $50 million, down from a prior $580-$600 million and $70-76 million, respectively. As a result, we reduced our 3Q22 revenue to $122 million, down from $140 million, We are projecting a net loss of $4.4 million, or $0.17 per share compared to our previous projection of net income of $5.5 million and EPS of $0.20. For the full year, we are projecting revenue of $519.1 million, adjusted EBITDA of $50.3 million, and a GAAP net-loss of $1.27.Maintaining Market Perform. We are maintaining our Market Perform rating given the challenging operating conditions. While we continue to believe in the long-term prospects of the company, based on our operating expectations, we think the shares will remain in a narrow range until positive operating momentum materializes. Read More >>