SHEL - Counting barrels - what is the real impact of self-sanctioning on oil markets?

As war broke out in Ukraine, Western energy companies refused to purchase Russian oil cargoes; Energy Intelligence estimated the total impact of self-sanctioning at ~2.5mb/d of oil and oil product. The group later revised its self sanctioning estimate upwards, to 3.0mb/d. The IEA Wednesday said that Russian self-sanctioning has yet to hit physical markets, as cargoes purchased before the invasion continued to sail; the Agency said that from April onward, self-sanctioning would restrict Russian supply by ~3mb/d. Morgan Stanley on Thursday adjusted the bank's supply forecast, reducing Russian volumes by 1mb/d from April onwards. However, Energy Intelligence has now flipped its position, the group now says Russian exports are running at close to normal levels. Energy Intelligence notes that trades have increasingly "gone dark" -- trades posted by Platts have slowed, while ship tracking data points to continued exports. Trading houses like Trafigura, Gunvor and Vitol have picked up what

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Counting barrels - what is the real impact of self-sanctioning on oil markets?