MRNA - COVID vaccine stocks lead biotech selloff in 1H; three reasons to see recovery

Pure play COVID-19 vaccine makers closed the 1H 2022 as some of the worst performers in the beaten-down biotech space amid concerns over how the group, once a pandemic favorite, could sustain growth as COVID impact wanes.

The selloff, worse than the ~33% decline among biotech stocks, follows sharp gains in 2021 when COVID-19 immunizations coupled with multiple waves of the pandemic brightened their prospects.

The messenger RNA-based vaccines introduced in late 2020 accelerated the revenue growth of Pfizer ( NYSE: PFE ), BioNTech ( BNTX ), and Moderna ( MRNA ) as global immunizations gathered pace.

Driven by vaccinations and actual infections, the COVID cases have dropped worldwide this year, clouding further demand for vaccines and hurting the revenue growth of developers, dragging their share prices along the way.

Latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that weekly COVID cases have fallen ~89% from the recent peak in mid-January, and COVID related deaths have dropped ~94% from February high.

Compared to the corresponding period last year, leading vaccine developers, Pfizer ( PFE ) and Moderna ( MRNA ), saw their 1Q 2022 revenue expanding only ~1.8x and ~3.1x, down from ~2.1x and ~12.6x in the preceding quarter, respectively.

Moderna ( MRNA ) and BioNTech ( BNTX ) have lost over 43% each in 1H 2022 to dominate the underperformers among large cap biotechs. When midcap stocks are also added to the group, Novavax ( NVAX ) tops the list with a decline of more than 64%.

Meanwhile, Pfizer ( PFE ), the partner of BioNTech ( BNTX ) to develop the first COVID shot to get U.S. regulatory clearance, has dropped over 12% to become the second worst performer among mega caps in healthcare.

However, several near-term catalysts remain for bargain hunters looking for a recovery.

Resurgence of COVID

The YTD selloff of shot-makers reflects the concerns over the prospects of their vaccine-led growth as COVID cases slide along with the size of their target market, those who remain unvaccinated.

According to the Our World in Data (OWID) project at the University of Oxford, about 61% of the global population is fully vaccinated, up from only 8% a year ago.

While global COVID cases are on the decline, the complete eradication of coronavirus is unlikely as the virus evolves, potentially evading the vaccine-led immunity.

With a sizable proportion of the global population remaining unvaccinated, an uptick of COVID cases could reignite the demand, especially for new and differentiated vaccines from the likes of Novavax ( NVAX ) and Valneva ( VALN ).

In a statement this week, the FDA’s vaccine chief Dr. Peter Marks highlighted the waning effectiveness of primary vaccine doses and initial boosters against new COVID variants such as Omicron.

“As we move into the fall and winter, it is critical that we have safe and effective vaccine boosters that can provide protection against circulating and emerging variants to prevent the most severe consequences of COVID- 19,” Dr. Marks wrote.

Redesigned boosters

With the U.S. health officials clearing shots for the last remaining age group in June, the need for redesigned vaccines set the stage for the next catalyst.

This week, the FDA advised vaccine makers to update their booster shots for BA.4 and BA.5, the newest and fast-spreading subvariants of Omicron, ahead of a booster program planned for fall 2022.

Pfizer ( PFE )/BioNTech ( BNTX ) and Moderna ( MRNA ) have already disclosed their clinical data for Omicron adapted boosters, albeit with a slightly lower efficacy for BA.4 and BA.5. Novavax ( NVAX ) shares added more than 10% on Friday after the company announced plans to introduce an Omicron- containing shot in 4Q 2022.

As these booster candidates advance through the regulatory path for the fall booster campaign, how much their beaten-down developers could regain the lost momentum will be in focus during 2H 2022.

M&A

With cash levels at a peak thanks to COVID-driven revenue, some of the vaccine makers are in a pole position to add bolt-on acquisitions to recover their fagging growth.

Against a difficult backdrop to raise equity capital, the large-cap companies could look for smaller targets as biotechs run out of options after the recent selloff, Wells Fargo argued in a recent research note. The firm also sees tailwinds from rising interest rates amid a concurrent decline in deal premiums.

Pfizer ( PFE ), a company with a large pipeline need, according to Wells Fargo, has already announced two multi-billion acquisitions this year, including a deal to acquire migraine therapy maker Biohaven Pharmaceutical ( BHVN ) for more than $11B.

However, on a forward non-GAAP earnings basis, Pfizer ( PFE ) is trading at ~7.7x, indicating a ~38.6% discount to the 5-year average, while Moderna ( MRNA ) has dropped to a cheaper ~5.4x multiple on the same basis despite its growth prospects.

With catalysts for COVID vaccine makers intact, the opportunities abound for risk takers to continue to bet on a revival in the second half of the year despite the 1H selloff, as seen in this graph.

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