COM - Crude oil bounces as Russian seaborne crude exports sink to six-month low

2023-07-18 18:55:05 ET

Crude oil prices rebounded Tuesday from a pullback that was blamed on weak Chinese economic data and the restart of production at Libyan oil fields that had been shut down due to protests.

The drop in oil prices during the previous few days came after a rally since late June that was driven by signs the market was tightening following production cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Front-month Nymex crude oil ( CL1:COM ) for August delivery closed +2.1% to $75.75/bbl, snapping a two-day decline that had taken a 4% chunk out of the price, and September Brent crude ( CO1:COM ) settled +1.4% to $79.63/bbl, reducing Brent's premium over WTI to its lowest since late May.

ETFs: ( NYSEARCA: USO ), ( BNO ), ( UCO ), ( SCO ), ( DBO ), ( USL ), ( DRIP ), ( GUSH ), ( USOI ), ( NRGU )

Russia's seaborne crude flows plunged to a six-month low in the latest four-week period, as Russia finally appears to be fulfilling its pledge to cut supply to international markets.

According to Bloomberg, Russia's crude shipments in the four weeks to July 16 dropped to 3.1M bbl/day, down a whopping 780K bbl/day from their peak in the four weeks to May 14.

Crude oil is unlikely to fall below $70/bbl, but it would take a "wild card" event to push prices above $90/bbl , Citigroup's head of commodity research Ed Morse said.

Oil is unlikely to rise above $90 with supply tightness factored in, but extreme weather events such as hurricanes could change the outlook, Morse said.

More analysis on crude oil:

• USO: Crude Oil Spike Usually Appears At End Of Economic Cycle
• USO: Improving Risk Appetite And Backwardation Point To Strong Total Returns
• Oil Can Still Hit $100 A Barrel And XLE Investors Can Benefit

For further details see: