UNP - Insider Weekends: The Mood Turns Significantly Darker

The S&P 500 gave back some of the gains from the optimism surrounding the $2 trillion stimulus package and ended last week down a little over 2%. I wrote about a COVID-19 playbook for premium subscribers discussing four scenarios and my perceived probabilities of those scenarios playing out. I wrote the following in that post:

The Superforecasters featured in Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner's excellent book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction were only right about 66% of the time. It is possible that this situation plays out very differently from the scenarios

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