XOM - Is $100+ oil dependent on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

With oil-price strategists recently calling for $100+ oil, prices up ~$10 in the past month, and an apparent cooling of tensions between Russia and Ukraine Tuesday, it's worth revisiting the conflict's potential impact on oil markets (NYSEARCA:USO).  In late January SA speculated on the conflict's implication for energy markets. At that time, it appeared energy-related sanctions would be unlikely, particularly oil-linked sanctions. Goldman released a report shortly thereafter agreeing with the conclusion, as the bank saw little risk to Russian energy flows on the back of a conflict. Since, a series of higher oil price targets have focused on surplus / deficit forecasts, largely ignoring geopolitical risks from Russia.  Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo now forecast summer 2022 prices in the $100+ range, citing increasingly tight balances and the need for prices to rise to blunt demand growth (NYSE:VLO) (NYSE:PSX). Although JPMorgan calls for up to a $30 geopolitical

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Is $100+ oil dependent on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?