COM - November 2021: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

November, 10 2021 12:30 PM Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy

In this article, I review EIA consumption and export figures, look at my estimates for September and October, and conclude with my latest forecast for November, December, and January.
On a 12-month average basis, natural gas exports now equate to around 17.26% of total demand - a new all-time record.
After rising by 0.19% y-o-y in August, I estimate that total natural gas consumption then declined by 2.34% y-o-y in September and plunged by 6.85% y-o-y in October.
I currently expect total supply (production + imports) in the contiguous United States to average 104.48 bcf/d over the next three months (November-December-January), +4.79 bcf/d y-o-y.
Currently, I project a minor supply-demand deficit in November and in January and a moderate surplus in December (vs. 2020-2021).

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Company Name:	Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy
Stock Symbol:	COM
Market:	NYSE