XOM - Oil poised to go back above $100 but Iran could become 'big driver' - Energy Aspects

Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen said Thursday that oil prices will likely jump back above $100 a barrel in the near-term, as the low-demand summer season passes. However, she identified Iran as a possible wildcard, with increased supply from that country potentially delivering downward pressure.

"The big driver, of course, for oil is Iran ... if there was to be a deal, yes, you could see quite a lot of pressure on oil, even from current levels, maybe even a little more downside," the founder and director of research at Energy Aspects told CNBC.

However, Sen confidently predicted that absent the added supply from an Iranian deal, oil prices would rally sharply from current levels.

"Without Iran, we are absolutely going back above $100 come winter," she said.

Sen acknowledged that oil prices have come down and the overall supply/demand picture "is not as tight as it was" when crude spiked earlier this year. However, she stopped short of describing the current supply situation as a "glut," contending that low seasonal demand has played the largest role in bringing crude down.

"When inventories are at a 10-year low, potentially in places at a record low, I struggle to call it a glut," she said.

Rather, Sen argued that the current situation is largely temporary, with demand likely rising in the next couple of months as the slow summer season ends in places like Europe.

WTI crude ( CL1:COM ) edged higher by about 2% in Thursday's early action, returning to near $90 a barrel. However, the commodity has come off a 52-week high of $126.42 reached in June, dropping about 29% from that peak.

Crude has gotten a bump in the past couple of days following the release of inventory data that showed a larger-than-expected decline in the most recent week. This has also encouraged buying in stocks like Valero Energy ( VLO ), Marathon Petroleum ( MPC ) and Phillips 66 ( PSX ).

Meanwhile, major oil players have also seen an upswing lately. Exxon ( XOM ) and ConocoPhillips ( COP ) both climbed about 3% in Thursday's early action.

For a contrary opinion to Sen's bullish take, read analysis issued by Seeking Alpha contributor Russell Katz, who lays out a case for "why oil is a broken market ripe for a short."

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