PLTR - Palantir: Recognize Greed And Avoid At All Costs (Rating Downgrade)

2023-11-06 08:30:00 ET

Summary

• Palantir Technologies stock saw a post-earnings surge last week following its solid Q3 results and upgraded guidance for Q4 and FY23.
• The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of GAAP net income profitability, potentially paving the way for inclusion in the S&P 500.
• Palantir solidified its relationship with the US Department of Defense and launched its Global Warfare Solutions, collaborating closely with defense contractors.
• The good news is coming fast and furious for PLTR investors trying to catch their breath. However, it's advisable not to ignore its "F" valuation grade.
• PLTR failed to break through its August 2023 highs, notwithstanding its stellar results. I argue why it's time for investors not to fall prey to greed. Consider selling the rip and rotate out.

Leading AI company Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ) saw a massive surge over the past week as the market reacted to its solid third-quarter or FQ3 earnings release. In addition, the company also upgraded its guidance for Q4 and FY23, corroborating its growth momentum in AIP.

If that wasn't enough, the company also posted its fourth consecutive quarter of GAAP net income profitability, paving the way for PLTR's potential inclusion in the S&P 500 ( SPX ) ( SPY ). As such, I believe market participants are assessing how to value PLTR, as the company demonstrated proof points in its nascent AIP. Furthermore, management is confident that Palantir's systems and solutions have a substantial competitive edge, " setting standards that competitors cannot match." The company highlighted its close partnership with the US government as a demonstrated proof point "where no one can replicate it for the same cost or effectiveness."

Accordingly, Palantir solidified its relationship with the US Department of Defense or DoD, as it launched its Palantir Government Web Services , or GWS, in September. It's designed to provide defense contractors (particularly the primes) critical "software solutions to quickly scale their mission-critical capabilities." Management cited positive experiences from leading defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin ( LMT ), articulating the "impact and benefits of Palantir GWS in accelerating their defense-related missions." As such, Palantir is collaborating closely with the primes as "allies," supporting them with best-in-class AI software systems and extending their capabilities.

I gleaned that the generative AI era could bring the best out of CEO Alex Karp and his team as they reminded investors about the significant advantages of its operating system. As such, Karp believes that Palantir has " set a standard the competition can never meet," helping it to gain further momentum in its AIP. The company has also tweaked its go-to-market strategy with AIP boot camps recently. These boot camps are designed to "enable the delivery of real workflows on actual customer data in five days or less." As such, it has provided a significant improvement against its previous pilot strategy, which took between one and three months. Customer responses have also been positive. Management highlighted faster customer negotiations and contract expansions.

These efforts have proved effective in driving the operating performance for Palantir in Q3, which is also expected to gain momentum in Q4 and beyond. Accordingly, the company reported a 23% growth in its commercial business in Q3. In its most important US segment, the uplift was more significant, as Palantir delivered revenue growth of 33%. When we exclude the contribution from its SPACs investment, US segment growth hit 52% YoY and 19% QoQ. As such, it helped to mitigate the continued slowdown in government segment revenue, which grew 12.4% YoY, down from Q2's 14.8% growth cadence.

With PLTR surging above the $19 level last week, inching closer to its August 2023 highs at the $20.3 level, it's essential to consider whether investors should wait for a pullback or join the bullish surge. It's important to consider that PLTR didn't muster sufficient momentum to break above that critical resistance level, notwithstanding its improved guidance (yellow flag).

PLTR is rated with an "F" valuation grade by Seeking Alpha Quant, suggesting a steep growth premium. Its forward EBITDA multiple of 50.5x or an adjusted P/E multiple of 65.7x corroborates my observation of its highly expensive valuation. As such, I believe investors keen to buy aggressively at the current levels need Palantir to post an even more optimistic 2024 guidance at its Q4 earnings scorecard to justify its valuation.

I gleaned that PLTR's August 2023 high ($20.2 level) remains a critical resistance zone that saw selling pressure returning intensely. While last week's surge was aggressive, it has yet to re-test that level. As such, unless you are a breakout investor, I assessed that the near-term upside isn't attractive enough to justify PLTR's risk/reward at the current levels.

It seems to be that much of PLTR's good news has been reflected in its highly-aggressive valuation. A much improved 2024 growth momentum must be anticipated if you add more at the current levels.

While I believe PLTR could still prove me wrong when it issues its 2024 guidance early next year, I have sold all my positions in PLTR, as I believe the tech sector ( XLK ) could come under more pressure in the medium term. As such, overvalued SaaS stocks like PLTR could be prone to a rotation out when the moment of reckoning arrives.

When everything seems to be running well and good, and you only hear about good news, and it looks fully reflected in its price action and valuation, that's when you should be fearful.

Rating: Downgraded to Sell.

Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Please always apply independent thinking and note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.

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