RTX - Q4 2023 GDP Prints To The Upside At 3.3% But We're Not 'Done' With Inflation
2024-01-25 18:13:50 ET
Summary
- Fourth Quarter 2023 GDP exceeds expectations at 3.3%, but the recession may only be delayed, not avoided.
- Personal Consumption Expenditures and Gross Domestic Investment drive GDP growth.
- The "soft landing" may be illusory. There are significant risks among regional banks from their bond and commercial real estate portfolios.
- We're not done with inflation, as geopolitical concerns and changes in the bond market may cause the Fed to forego widely anticipated rate cuts.
NEW YORK (January 25) - Fourth Quarter 2023 (2023Q4) Gross Domestic Product [GDP] printed this morning at 3.3% , well above the consensus estimates for the year and quashing expectations of recession that had lingered for much of 2023. (We had predicted 3% (+/-25bps) in our 2023Q3 GDP report, but revised it downward in our monthly jobs reports based on anomalous data points that came later in the quarter.) The quarterly number capped an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5%....
Q4 2023 GDP Prints To The Upside At 3.3%, But We're Not 'Done' With Inflation