GOOGL - QQQX & QQQ: Substantial Downside Ahead

Summary

• We upgraded both QQQ and QQQX to neutral, as we expected a countertrend rally.
• We got that on schedule, and the fundamentals have deteriorated significantly since then.
• We compare the two funds and tell you why the next 18 months could see another 30%-50% drop.

We have always maintained that options are one of the most effective strategies to increase returns. One can increase profits while simultaneously lowering risk by embracing volatility and offering insurance (read cash secured puts) or lottery tickets (read covered calls) to other investors. Now it appears the secret is out, and many funds have flocked to this option strategy in recent years. Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund ( NASDAQ: QQQX ), primarily employs covered calls as a return-enhancing technique and that is the one we cover today. We will contrast this fund with the very similar Invesco QQQ ETF ( NASDAQ: QQQ ), which is also based on the NASDAQ 100. When we last covered this dynamic duo, we felt the shorter-term prospects were brighter, but the longer term remained firmly in a downtrend for both. Specifically, we said:

Tactically it becomes hard to push a bearish call here and hence we are upgrading QQQX and QQQ to neutral. Longer term, we expect extremely poor returns for both funds, but expect the outperformance of QQQX over QQQ to improve marginally over what we have seen so far. This stems from the volatility index itself as high VIX levels tend to provide more juice for option income.

Source: QQQX Outperformance Over QQQ Should Widen

How did that work out? Quite well, actually. We are fortunate in our timing to pivot, and both ETFs delivered a rip-roaring rally over the next 45 days.

The bloom has come off the rose since then, and we tell you why some heavy clobbering lies ahead on both.

Portfolios

QQQX currently holds 168 securities, a small downgrade from the 172 we saw the last time.

These include the list from the NASDAQ 100 and a group of smaller names from the mid-cap and small-cap indices.

QQQ sticks to its NASDAQ 100 with a couple of duplicates stemming from more than one class of share as we see with Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ).

Both funds are extremely top-heavy with a few stocks dictating how the bulk of the money is allocated. QQQX has more than 50% of its wealth in the top 10 holdings.

QQQ is very similar, and some differences might actually be stemming from the fact that these numbers have been computed at different time points.

With more than 50% coming from these names, it is highly likely that these will drive the bulk of the performance.

Our Outlook

For both these funds, the underlying holdings remain incredibly expensive. QQQ shows the P/E ratio from June 30, 2022, and we should be in that same neighborhood considering where the market is.

That P/E ratio is computed, as always, by excluding the unprofitable companies. Most of the time, it is understated. The top 10 holdings look even worse overall from a valuation standpoint. Looking at Apple Inc. ( AAPL ), Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ) gives readers an idea of what we are talking about.

QQQX should be in the same neighborhood on account of its overlap with QQQ. But even the 28, if taken at face value, is not remotely compatible with the current environment. We have two main issues here. First, the probability of recession is close to 90% in the next 12 months. That is of course our opinion, and we could be wrong. But that opinion makes us believe that earnings will contract and will contract hard. So that 28 likely becomes at least 35 when all is said and done. The second aspect here is that real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) are rising briskly. Historically, when you get better real returns in cash and bonds, P/E multiples contract. You can see the recent relationship of this over here.

Now envision a scenario where we are right about earnings contracting 20% and the multiple contracting another 30%. What do you get? You get blown apart.

Despite the drop we have had, we think QQQ and QQQX can fall another 50% from here before we bottom. This might not be, and actually most likely won't be, a straight line. We will have rallies and premature celebrations all the way down, but ultimately we think QQQ could hit $150-$190.00 and QQQX could hit $12.00-$15.00

One Versus The Other

Income chasers might be upset that we have pretty much lumped QQQX with QQQ. That is the reality for the most part, the two track each other. You saw the chart off the June bottom, which we posted above. In the COVID-19 decline, QQQX actually underperformed QQQ.

So far this year, total return for QQQX is outperforming marginally.

That is luck of the draw, as to where options land. The shorter-dated options sold by QQQX generally don't provide much downside protection and very often, rob investors of large upside on countertrend rallies.

Overall, QQQX likely does better on a total return standpoint, but it won't be something you are going to write home about.

Verdict

QQQX has that large distribution going for it.

That distribution won't mean much if total returns are poor. It won't mean much if you have a permanent capital loss, which we believe you will from this point. Finally, distributions can only be generated based on how high volatility is and how many dollars are backing each share.

So if we are right about NAV moving to $12-$15 for QQQX, you should expect 30%-50% less distributions. If we get the 30%-50% drop and then the NASDAQ and QQQX take a few months forming a bottom with low volatility, you can expect further cuts to distributions. Overall, we remain negative on this fund, and you can see from our first bearish article, both ETFs have delivered poor returns.

We have a lot more downside to go, and investors should not chase "income" in this manner. We rate both funds a "Sell".

Please note that this is not financial advice. It may seem like it, sound like it, but surprisingly, it is not. Investors are expected to do their own due diligence and consult with a professional who knows their objectives and constraints.

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