COM - Retail Sales April 2024: Alarming Deceleration

2024-05-16 18:46:32 ET

Summary

• Big downside disappointment in April retail sales data, plus downward revisions to prior months.
• Nominal retail sales grew less than expected, and inflation-adjusted "real" retail sales actually contracted.
• The combination of downward revisions of prior months' data, plus negative real growth in April, will cause many economists to significantly downgrade their outlooks for economic growth in 2Q 2024.

The Advance Report on Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services was published on May 15, 2024, at 8:30 AM. The report contains information about changes in the prices (inflation/deflation) of a wide array of goods and services purchased by consumers in the U.S. during the month of April 2024.

According to the BEA, total nominal retail sales grew by +0.02% on a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis - -0.38% less than the median forecasted growth of +0.40%. Considering our estimate of retail sales inflation of +0.18% (derived from detailed analysis of CPI data), inflation-adjusted "real" retail sales contracted by -0.16%....

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