LW - Riskiest defensive stocks as a recession looms

UBS screens for the consumer names that would normally do well in a downturn, but carry risks.

The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) ( SPY ) finds itself in bear market territory and investors have turned to defensive sectors, according to BofA's survey of client flows.

"We identify stocks within the S&P 1500 Consumer Staples Index (SP1500-3010) which may not be as defensive as commonly perceived," strategist Keith Parker wrote in a note. "We include stocks whose inventory minus sales growth y/y is >0% and whose defensive score based on our proprietary framework ranks in the bottom 50th pctl."

The stocks are:

1. J.M Smucker ( SJM ), Q1 '22 inventory vs. sales growth y/y 10%, defensive score 41%, pricing power z-score 0.05
2. Tyson Foods ( TSN ), 5%, 44%, -0.13
3. Boston Beer ( SAM ), 22%, 20%, 0.28
4. MGP Ingredients ( MGPI ), 10%, 30%, -0.81
5. Ingredion ( INGR ), %, 43%, -0.16
6. Hormel ( HRL ), 9%, 43%, -0.06
7. Archer-Daniels-Midland ( ADM ), 10%, 37%, -0.12
8. B&G Food ( BGS ), 18%, 1%, -0.1
9. e.l.f. Beauty ( ELF ), 35%, 18%, -0.06
10. Celsius Holdings ( CELH ), 233%, 7%, 0.06
11. Molson Coors ( TAP ), 9%, 28%, 0.12
12. Edgewell Personal Care ( EPC ), 16%, 21%, 0.04
13. Energizer ( ENR ), 42%, 44%, -0.11
14. Kraft Heinz ( KHC ), 21%, 7%, -0.09
15. Simply Good Foods ( SMPL ), 7%, 35%, 0.18

See the stocks with the most China exposure .

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