COM - Russian oil exports rise while refined oil product exports fall

Shortly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, commodity strategists and investors worked feverishly to forecast the impact of sanctions and self-sanctioning activity on global energy supplies. Estimates ranged from no impact to a ~3.0mb/d loss in global oil production; however, recent data from Vortexa, indicates that Russian oil exports are rising, while oil product exports are falling (USO) (XLE). In the first 24 days of May, Russian crude and condensate exports averaged 3.6mb/d, down 170kb/d from April, but up from pre-war averages. Conversely, refined product exports averaged 2.0mb/d, down ~400kb/d from seasonal averages. Despite large parts of China under lockdown, and despite higher Russian exports, oil (CL1:COM) has remained above $100 per barrel for most of Q2; however, reduced China oil product exports and falling Russian volumes have led to record refining margins (VLO) (PSX) (MPC) around the world.

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Russian oil exports rise while refined oil product exports fall