SE - Sea Limited: Decline In Market Share Likely To Hurt The Stock

2023-08-31 12:28:06 ET

Summary

• The recent earnings result shows that Sea Limited has lost its growth momentum in order to improve profitability.
• Sea Limited is losing market share due to intense competition from Alibaba’s Lazada in Southeast Asia.
• Alibaba’s international commerce segment which includes Lazada reported 60% YoY revenue growth and significant improvement in EBITA margin.
• It would be difficult for Sea Limited to deliver good growth with reasonable profit due to modest investments in first-party logistics.
• We could see further correction in Sea Limited stock over the next few quarters as the company loses market share in key regions.

Sea Limited (SE) stock is down by 30% in the year-to-date despite a massive cost-cutting program which helped the company turn profitable in the last few quarters. Most of the Big Tech companies in the U.S. have also launched major reductions in headcount which helped improve their EPS and also led to a big tech rally in 2023. On the other hand, Sea Limited did not see any gains in the stock price due to a number of new challenges.

Sea Limited is facing competition from Alibaba's (BABA) Lazada in Southeast Asia. In the recent quarter, Sea Limited reported YoY revenue growth of 5% while Alibaba's International Commerce retail segment reported YoY revenue growth of 60%. Alibaba's International Commerce segment also reduced losses by 70% and is now close to being profitable. CNBC mentioned that Sea Limited's management is now trying to pivot back to growth while putting profitability as a lower priority.

This continuous back and forth between growth and profitability shows the dilemma facing Sea Limited. It is unlikely that Sea Limited will be able to deliver sustainable growth with healthy profits in the near term which will continue to put downward pressure on the stock. Despite the recent correction, it is better to use a wait-and-watch strategy with this stock.

Due to these challenges, the stock should have a Hold rating in my opinion. Sea Limited has been able to surprise Wall Street in the past by launching very popular games and services. If the management is able to another profitable segment in the next few quarters, we could see a strong bullish momentum in the stock.

Losing market share

The rapid growth of Sea Limited during the pandemic was funded by being a loss leader. The company invested heavily in attracting new customers with higher discounts and giving incentives to sellers. This inevitably led to massive losses in the company. As the tech boom ended in late 2021, Sea Limited's stock went into a massive bear phase and we have seen the stock decline by a staggering 90% since hitting the peak in 2021.

Figure 1: Sea Limited's YoY revenue growth has fallen behind Alibaba.

Last year, Sea Limited started pursuing profitability by lowering incentives, hiking commission rates, and cutting headcount . This has helped the company become profitable but has caused a significant decline in market share. The e-commerce segment in Southeast Asia and other regions has been showing promising growth. According to recent earnings results , Alibaba's International Commerce retail segment has jumped by 60% on a YoY basis. A bulk of Alibaba's international retail revenue comes from Lazada which is in direct competition with Sea Limited.

Figure 2: Increase in Alibaba's international retail revenue.

Alibaba is also injecting additional funds into Lazada. Recently, it has added $845 million which should give Lazada enough firepower to attract more customers and take market share away from Sea Limited.

Return to massive losses

Sea Limited's management has mentioned that they will start prioritizing revenue growth in the next few quarters. This will lead the company back to losses. One of the reasons why Wall Street has not turned bullish towards the stock despite recent profitability is the lack of sustainable long-term profitability. The only way Sea Limited can improve its revenue growth is by giving bigger incentives to sellers and customers.

Alibaba is looking to spinoff the company into six different businesses. One of these would be the international business vertical. It is important for Alibaba to show strong metrics in a key international region before spinning off the international business. We could see Alibaba prioritize growth in Lazada for the next few quarters by making higher investments in logistics and improving the market share. This will reduce the ability of Sea Limited to deliver strong revenue growth and it could eat away the small profitability which the company has recently reported.

Figure 3: Forward revenue and EPS estimates of Sea Limited.

The forward revenue estimates of Sea Limited are declining as the YoY revenue growth has reduced. As shown in the above image, the consensus EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $3.20. Sea Limited's stock is trading at 12 times the EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. This seems a modest valuation multiple. However, we could see a substantial decrease in EPS and possibly a restart of big losses as the company tries to ramp up revenue growth and protect its market share.

Investors looking to make an entry at the current price should look at the possibility and scale of future losses in Sea Limited. A higher revenue base and intense competition will prevent Sea Limited from showing the YoY revenue growth it reported during the pandemic which helped the stock gain a massive bull run. At the same time, we could see a significant decline in margins in the near term.

Upside potential for Sea Limited

Despite the above-mentioned challenges, Sea Limited could still surprise with a stronger-than-expected earnings result in the next few quarters. This would require the company to increase the cost-cutting measures. It would also need to be very prudent in future incentives to attract customers and merchants. The management has mentioned that they would be prioritising revenue growth which is one of the reasons why it could be difficult to contain spiralling costs.

In the past few years, Sea Limited has been able to launch new services and games which were highly popular and profitable for the company. If the company launches another popular game like Free Fire, it could change the growth and EPS trajectory for the company giving the stock a strong bullish sentiment.

Impact on Sea Limited stock

The e-commerce business is to a large extent a winner-takes-all market. We have seen this in the U.S. as well as in other regions like China, India, and Europe. Sea Limited has spent massive resources on incentives, marketing, and trying to attract customers instead of building a first-party logistics network that can rival bigger players. A lack of a strong moat will hurt the company as most of the tailwind due to the pandemic has disappeared.

Figure 4: High PE ratio of SE despite lower revenue growth.

Sea Limited's PE ratio is still quite high while the company is reporting single-digit YoY revenue growth. As mentioned above, it is highly likely that we will see a decline in margins or big losses from Sea Limited in the next few quarters as the company tries to reignite its revenue growth. It would be better for investors to wait and watch for another quarter or two before making an entry into this stock.

Investor takeaway

Sea Limited reported 5% YoY revenue growth which was significantly lower than the 60% YoY revenue growth reported by Alibaba's International commerce retail business. Alibaba's Lazada is a major competitor for Sea Limited and Alibaba is injecting massive resources in order to improve the market share of Lazada.

Sea Limited's management is trying to restart revenue growth which could lead to a decline in margins and bigger losses. The revenue base of Sea Limited is quite large compared to the pre-pandemic period which will make it more difficult to report high YoY revenue growth. The forward EPS estimate seems quite unrealistic as the company is trying to ramp up revenue growth. I think there are a lot of risks with the current strategy of the management and any future headwind could cause further correction in the stock.

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