SPY - Stock Market Melt-Ups End When Everyone Believes In Them - We Are There Now

2023-06-14 15:51:50 ET

Summary

• Are we in a melt-up? Selectively yes.
• Sentiment suggests we are in the overconfidence phase.
• This is a dangerous juncture in my view for traders getting swept in the AI narrative of the moment.

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher.

A melt-up is a sudden and often unexpected surge in investment performance, driven more by a herd mentality of investors who don't want to miss out on the rising market rather than actual, fundamental improvements in the economy. I have been consistent all year in arguing that because we are in a pre-election year, this likely would be a strong stock market despite all the negative narrative to start the year, but that at the same time, a credit event is looming.

Are we in a melt-up? Selectively yes. The S&P 500 (SP500) and NASDAQ (COMP.IND) clearly have been on fire, but beneath the surface breadth is broadly still terrible. Yet the narrative remains.

One of the necessary conditions for a melt-up to continue is doubt. That is no longer anywhere to be found.

Understanding Melt-Ups: The Role of Investor Sentiment

Stock market melt-ups can be attributed to investor sentiment, with investors flocking to buy stocks because they notice the market rising and don't want to miss out on the opportunity. This investor optimism encourages more investors to buy stocks in prominent companies with strong earnings points. However, the perceived rise in the stock market is caused by fear of missing out.

The Unreliability of Melt-Up Gains

Melt-ups are often followed by financial meltdowns, with the sudden rise in stock prices being unsustainable in the long run. This poses a risk to investors, as melt-ups are not driven by actual fundamental improvements in the economy and can lead to significant losses if the market experiences a subsequent crash or correction.

The Dangers of Overconfidence: A Commonality Between Major Tops and Bottoms

Overconfidence is a psychological trait that can lead investors to make irrational decisions when investing in the stock market. This overconfidence can be particularly dangerous during a melt-up, as investors may be more likely to buy stocks based on the market's momentum rather than its actual value. When the market eventually experiences a correction or crash, overconfident investors may suffer significant losses. This overconfidence is a commonality between every major top and bottom for stocks, as it can lead investors to make decisions based on emotions rather than sound financial analysis.

Sentiment suggests we are in the overconfidence phase.

Seasonal Trends and Sector Performance

Another way to navigate the stock market during a melt-up is to consider seasonal trends and sector performance. Certain sectors may perform better during specific periods, and this information can be used to guide investment decisions. For example, the Consumer Discretionary sector tends to turn in October, while the Materials sector typically bottoms in November and then rallies into the year-end. By monitoring these trends and focusing on strong sector performance, investors can better position themselves in the market.

The Importance of Risk Management

During a melt-up, it's crucial for investors to prioritize risk management. This involves setting stop-loss orders, diversifying portfolios, and adopting a long-term investment strategy. By focusing on managing risk, investors can protect themselves from the potential dangers of a melt-up and subsequent market correction.

Conclusion: Be Careful

This is a dangerous juncture in my view for traders getting swept in the AI narrative of the moment because of the huge gains by stocks like Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) and Nvidia Corporation (NVDA). I see extreme bullish sentiment and a degree of arrogance now by the bulls, just like I saw in October of last year.

While stock market melt-ups can present opportunities for short-term gains, investors should be cautious and prioritize a fundamental approach to investing. By focusing on economic indicators, seasonal trends, sector performance, and risk management, investors can navigate the stock market during a melt-up and protect themselves from potential losses.

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