MRNA - Stocks To Watch: Spotlight On Disney Rivian Automotive Moderna Birkenstock And Stryker

2023-11-04 10:00:00 ET

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Investors head into the new week with stocks making a recovery push and Treasury yields falling back. The economic calendar is light, with the release of the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey being one of the key releases. Analysts think the reading on bank lending conditions will be important in assessing credit and growth risks going forward. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a panel at the IMF's annual research conference. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will also speak. The turn in the bond market will be a major point of discussion. Seeking Alpha analyst Jim Sloan recommended buying bonds before rates slip back below the long-term average. The earnings calendar slows down, with more than 400 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index already having made the trip into the earnings confessional. Some of the notable reporters scheduled for next week are Disney (DIS), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Uber Technologies (UBER). Key events to watch include AI events for OpenAI and Moderna (MRNA), as well as Investor Days for Extreme Networks (EXTR) and Stryker Corporation (SYK).

Earnings spotlight: Monday, November 6 - NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), and Diamondback Energy (FANG).

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, November 7 - Gilead Sciences (GILD), Uber Technologies (UBER), UBS Group (UBS), GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), eBay (EBAY), and Coupang (CPNG).

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, November 8 - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Ralph Lauren (RL), Disney (DIS), Biogen (BIIB), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), MGM Resorts (MGM), Roblox (RLBX), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Skillz (SKLZ) and Lyft (LYFT).

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, November 9 - AstraZeneca (AZN), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Li Auto (LI), Groupon (GRPN), and Archer Aviation (ACHR).

Earnings spotlight: Friday, November 10 - News Corporation (NWSA) and Soho House (SHCO).

Volatility watch: Short interest levels elevated Fisker (FSR), Theravance Biopharma (TBPH), Novavax (NVAX), Bowlero Corp. (BOWL), and Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC). Options trading volume has moved higher recently on Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Replimune Group (REPL). The most overbought stocks per their 14-day relative strengh index are Generation Asia I Acquisition (GAQ), Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP), and Startek (SRT). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index are McCormick (MKC), Real Good Food (RGF), and PSQ Holdings (PSQH).

Dividend watch: Companies projected to boost their quarterly dividend payouts include A10 Networks (ATEN) to $0.07 from $0.06, Motorola Solutions (MSI) to $0.97 from $0.88, Roper (ROP) to $0.75 from $0.6825, and Lancaster Colony (LANC) to $0.90 from $0.85. Dividend investors have a new ETF to consider. Of interest, the Roundhill S&P Dividend Monarchs ETF (KNGS) began trading a few days ago. The KNGS ETF fund is described as an opportunity for investors to tap into the elite group of dividend payers, providing both the potential for robust yield and the premium quality associated with enduring blue-chip names. Companies in the S&P Dividend Monarchs Index are noted to have showcased steadfast dividend dedication, with several boasting over 65 years of consecutive dividend increases. Top holdings in the fund include 3M (MMM), Leggett & Platt (LEG), Black Hills (BKH), and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). See Seeking Alpha's list of Quick Dividend Stock Picks.

IPO watch: Two small IPOs are expected to price during the week and being trading. Moving company Elate Group (ELGP) aims to raise $5M and specialty insurance and reinsurance provider Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) is targeting $255M with its IPO. The IPO quiet period ends on Birkenstock (BIRK) to free up analysts to post ratings. Birkenstock was trading 15% below its IPO pricing level at the time of publication. Quiet periods also expire on Primech (PMEC), Agape ATP (ATPC), Global Mofy Metaverse (GMM), and La Rosa (LRHC).

Disney earnings preview: The House of Mouse is forecast to report revenue of $21.4B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.71. Segment revenue for the entertainment business is expected to top $14B and the experiences business is seen churning up $8.3B. Subscriber tallies for Disney+ and ESPN+ are expected to dip slightly, while Hulu is expected to see positive net additions for the quarter. Disney (DIS) is undergoing a broad strategic review of its asset mix amid the secular challenges driven by the decline of the pay-TV universe. Key areas of focus on the conference call will be more color on CEO Bob Iger's plan to find potential strategic investors for ESPN, the strategy for Hulu, studio release updates, and the outlook for dividends. Shares of Disney are down 4.4% on a year-to-date basis.

Rivian earnings preview: Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is expected to report revenue of $1.31B, EPS of -$1.32, and an EBITDA loss of $1.04B as the growing pains continue. Rivian Automotive already disclosed that it produced 16,304 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois during Q3 and delivered 15,564 vehicles during the same period. The electric vehicle maker's last forecast for full-year annual production was for 52K vehicles. On the capital raise front, Rivian already pulled off the Band-Aid by announcing in October that it plans to offer $1.5B in green convertible senior notes due in 2030 as a private offering to qualified institutional buyers. Barclays analyst Andres Sheppard thinks the EV stock has sold off too much, making for a good entry point for investors with a long-term investment horizon and who are comfortable taking on volatility." The EV maker is also well-positioned to exceed its annual targets, Sheppard noted. Seeking Alpha analyst Noah Cox previewed that the key factors to watch with the report include the demand for Rivian's EVs, the adoption rate among consumers, and the company's ability to manage costs while scaling operations. In terms of guidance, Rivian is not expected to be EBITDA-positive until the back half of 2024 at the earliest. Shares of Rivian fell 10% after its last earnings report. Options trading implies a swing up or down of about 12% for the upcoming report. the electric vehicle stocks that correlate the closest to Rivian following its earnings report are Canoo (GOEV) and Lucid Group (LCID).

AI events: The first-ever OpenAI DevDay in San Francisco is expected to offer a preview of new tools and ideas. OpenAI says more than 2 million developers are using GPT-4, GPT-3.5, DALL·E and Whisper for a wide range of use cases—from integrating smart assistants into existing applications to building entirely new applications and services that weren't possible before. Moderna's (MRNA) virtual Digital and AI Investor Event has been circled by analysts as a potential share price catalyst, with the company due to give presentations discussing digital strategy and the role of AI in accelerating its innovation, scale, and value creation.

Conference schedule: The Guggenheim Securities 5th Annual Inflammation, Neurology & Immunology Conference will include participation from Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA), Apogee Therapeutics (APGE), Passage Bio (PASG), and Aeglea BioTherapeutics (AGLE). The roster of companies participating in the Baird 2023 Global Industrial Conference includes Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX), Ryder (R), Gentherm (THRM), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK), and BorgWarner (BWA). Other conferences of note are the BIO-Europe 2023 Conference, Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference, UBS Biopharma Conference, and Stifel 2023 Midwest One-on-One Growth Conference.

Quant ratings: Stocks with recent quant rating changes include Amgen (AMGN) to Strong Buy from Hold, Aurora Innovation (AUR) to Buy from Hold, and Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) to Sell from Hold. See the stocks with the very highest rated Seeking Alpha Quant Ratings.

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