COM - U.S. Natural Gas Market: I Have Reduced My Short Exposure But Still Maintain A Bearish Bias

• This Thursday, I expect the EIA to report 1,791 bcf of working gas in storage for the week ending Feb. 18.
• I anticipate seeing a draw of 120 bcf, 46 bcf smaller vs. the five-year average for this time of the year.
• The latest short-range weather models were very bearish (vs. the previous update). ECMWF 00z Ensemble has "removed" some 18 bcf of potential natural gas consumption compared to yesterday's 12z results.
• Over the next 30-day period, total natural gas demand is expected to average 112 bcf/d, 7.6 bcf/d more than a year ago.
• The annual storage deficit is currently projected to expand by 104 bcf by Mar. 18.

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