COM - U.S. SPR Release Is Coming But The Saudis Have The Upper Hand
2024-06-18 17:22:52 ET
Summary
- We think with where US commercial crude storage is heading, the Biden administration will release another ~30 million bbls of SPR.
- The timing of the release will start in August and end in November.
- But the Saudis will have the upper hand. From a timing perspective, OPEC+ can still extend the voluntary production cuts to the end of 2024.
- Either way, we see oil price upside being capped this year. We do not see a price spike.
One of the key headwinds for the oil market this year was the possibility of a coordinated Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR") release from the US and China. With this year being a presidential election year, the Biden administration will do whatever it takes to keep oil prices from moving higher....
U.S. SPR Release Is Coming But The Saudis Have The Upper Hand