BILS News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill From 03/02/22

At the moment, some variables are beginning to align that might be a sign of a recession on the horizon. Up until the Russian invasion into Ukraine, the market was nearly unanimous in thinking the Federal Reserve would increase the Fed Funds Rate by at least .25%, if not .50%. The...

In 2022, we have extreme uncertainty around the fundamental economic environment, the policy response, inflation and the response of policymakers. Although we are cautiously optimistic on the inflationary trajectory, when you look at the relatively low rate environment still, you ...

Inflation is money, therefore a true central bank should be able to judge whether or not there is too much. If there is, inflation’s going to be coming unless some intervention in the real money system. Instead, policymakers attempt to reverse-engineer their way into the inflat...

The equities rebound towards the end of January, from the initial swoon, was reversed last week, and at this point, a new low is all but certain. There are a number of things troubling equities. Geopolitics are a fickle catalyst for anything, but it has certainly added to the misery i...

I think the idea of a “surprise” inter-meeting rate hike is silly in the context of modern Federal Reserve operating procedures. Unless inflation cools a lot, the base case has to be that we are looking at 25 basis points per meeting (plus the wild card of a starting 50)...

The price of government bonds, particularly those with shorter maturities have declined considerably over the past seven months. Growth rates and future earnings are inextricably connected. Value companies often command much lower price to earnings ratios. For further detail...

The stimulus payments led to a short-term boost in PCE, corresponding with increased economic growth. However, stimulus-fueled activity has a dark side. Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the sugar rush of liquidity continues to fade from the system. When it comes to the s...

So far, the Dow is off 5.6% from the highs (transports are -12.0%), the S&P 500 is -7.8%. Ex-energy and financials, the S&P 500 is near -10%. The Nasdaq is -14%, and the economically sensitive Russell 2000 is -16.9%–the same level it was at the start of 2021. At the...

The past 2 years of easy monetary policy have unleashed a torrent of liquidity throughout the marketplace, and as we approach normalcy, or a perceived normalcy of interest rates over the next few years, perhaps that will tighten. Investors should be prepared for small bouts of volatil...

The recent run higher in the Sharpe ratio for the Global Market Index finally reversed in October. Risk-adjusted performance has slipped, but GMI's rebound in October lifted it to a new record high. GMI is useful as a baseline to begin research on asset allocation and portfolio de...