CBSE News and Press, Changebridge Capital Sustainable Equity From 02/13/23

Summary While the rest of America was gearing up for the Super Bowl Sunday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised Q4 inflation numbers higher on Friday. This is actually huge news. Preprogrammed algos bought billions in stock off of November and December CPI off of faulty assumptio...

Summary Has recent strong data changed the fundamental economic and market outlook, or just the timeline? A stronger January than December should not come as a surprise, given the diminished China- and energy-related headwinds the global economy now faces. We also know that monetary...

Summary The S&P 500 has tested the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement. Most bear markets end when the 0.5 retracement is successfully breached. Leading indicators suggest that the bottom is not in for the S&P. The "line in the sand" is around 4,250. A picture is worth a thous...

Summary The S&P 500 is just too expensive at this level. It will be brought to heal by rising rates and lower earnings. A long-short strategy along with hedging the indexes and maintaining a cash management discipline creates the right configuration for trading success. ...

Summary A week of rest and consolidation has set up volatility next week as key data will be released. "Higher for longer" rate expectations are gaining traction but would be discouraged by a disinflationary CPI report. Key technical levels to watch in the S&P 500 in the week ah...

Summary CPI is expected to see a big jump in January month-over-month. Recent revisions showed that inflation was running hotter than was previously thought. Inflation swaps, bonds, options suggest that CPI could come in hotter than expected. The upcoming February 14 Consu...

Summary After years of strong returns, 2022 was the worst year for global equities since the 2008 financial crisis. This trend is evident in the recent increase in securities lending activity, the mechanism which enables short selling. In December 2022 alone, the iShares Russell 200...

Summary After having collapsed in November 2022, U.S. imports of goods produced in China shrank again in December 2022. Trailing-twelve month average combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China was below a counterfactual trajectory based on the recovery of trade between th...

Summary The US trade surplus in services dipped further in 2022, from the already beaten down levels of 2021, to $244 billion, the lowest since 2012, and the fourth year in a row of declines. Imports of goods spiked by $425 billion, or by 15%, to $3.28 trillion. Exports of goods jum...

Summary The Cleveland Fed forecasts inflation to start plateauing in January and February. The Fed will have to be more aggressive and hike above the currently expected 5.1%. Long-term nominal interest rates expected to rise, and the bear market in TLT expected to continue. ...