DTYS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L451 From 05/30/19

By Craig Hemke "The writing is on the wall." "What is past is prologue." "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes." Yada, yada, yada... So, to the title of this post: what is the bond market telling you? Well, let's look at the current structure of the yield curve: Fed Funds overnight ...

Scarcely a day goes by without a flood of new articles in the financial media expressing shock and disbelief over Treasury yields. It's not just that they are wrong, these say, it's that they have to be wrong. What they are implying just isn't compatible with the what "everyone" is expecte...

If there's one overarching theme that pervades almost all of the commentary I've read this week, it's that market participants have finally woken up to why recent escalations in the dispute between Washington and Beijing matter more than previous escalations. Note that I didn't include the w...

A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way, because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing. And even if China took this step, it would have either...

If, ten years ago, I had told you that there were going to be negative yielding bonds you would have thought, "Poor Mark, he has lost his mind." Well, ten years ago I did not say it, and now we are all faced with a $10.475 trillion reality of bonds with negative yields. This has all been cause...

"Life is not always like chess. Just because you have the king surrounded, don't think he is not capable of hurting you." - Ron Livingston Looking at the results in the European elections promising more turmoil ahead between Italy and the European Commission, on top of the continuation of ...

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. In advance of the release of the FOMC's May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the Federal Funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its...

By Jeffrey Kleintop Over the past 30 years, stock markets around the world have rallied after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the last time in the economic cycle. The rallies have varied in length and strength, but eventually break down as the late cycle environment enco...

Macro News European Elections: For the first time since the inception of the European Parliament, the two centre parties - the European People Party ((EPP)) and Socialists and Democrats (S&D) - have lost their combined majority on the back of a strengthening nationalist, liberal and gr...

As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...