FTSD News and Press, Franklin Liberty Short Duration U.S. Government From 02/22/23

Summary Market sentiment regarding inflation has turned from one of excessive optimism about a decline in inflation to one of excessive pessimism about an increase. Inflation will decline in 2023, I think, but the decline will be gradual and volatile. Expectations of softening infla...

Summary Several central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, target a 2% inflation rate to help ensure the economy avoids deflation. Consumer Price Index measures the out-of-pocket expenditures for a specific set of goods and services from the perspective of consumers....

Summary With CPI inflation still declining, the tighter Fed policy is working. With Thursday morning’s second pass at Q4 ’22 GDP, we get to see the GDP deflator. Consensus (as well as Briefing.com’s forecast) is for +3.5%, the same as we saw for the first look at th...

Summary Inflation bounced back in January, which will likely make the Fed more cautious and increases the probability of further rate hikes. The increase in inflation was fairly broad based and not just the result of a change in basket weights. The latest inflation figures also need...

Summary The M2 measure of money supply is declining, and higher interest rates are increasing the demand for money; this is a one-two punch which is rapidly snuffing out inflation. There is still no sign of the kind of economic or financial market stress that would trigger a recession. ...

Summary The near-instantaneous analysis of January’s highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was impressive. It is questionable whether the uncertainties in the inflation outlook can be meaningfully reduced by looking at the individual trees in the inflation forest. ...

Summary A historical look at prior inflationary periods (1910s, 1940s, and 1970s) to see what they have to say about the 2020s. An analysis of two very different types of money creation: fiscal-driven inflation and lending-driven inflation. An outlook on investment opportunities for...

Summary What the latest U.S. CPI data means for interest rates. What shelter costs tell us about the inflation fight going forward. Inflation may be easing, but pressures remain. U.S. consumer prices are showing signs of easing, but expectations remain that the Fed...

Summary The Fed is still planning on getting the CPI down to 2% on a year-over-year basis, and now it looks like they could get there - or at least a lot closer to it - sooner rather than later. The DXY has finally lifted its face off the floor following the Fed’s pivot to slower...

Summary Inflation may finally be coming down. But inflation coming down and returning to 2% are two different things. Consumers still expect high prices this year on many of the goods and services that dominate their spending. By Allison Schrager Inflation may fina...