KLDW News and Press, Knowledge Leaders Developed World From 03/04/22

Although I am working with obviously incomplete and biased information, I view the possibility of the cessation of hostilities within a few weeks to be unlikely. The sanctions, war disruptions, and a Western private sector that is cutting ties to Russia means that we are facing an ext...

When it comes to the Ukraine invasion and its impact on markets, what are the views of asset managers around the world? In discussions with managers, it appears that most thought that a full invasion was highly unlikely. While the base forecasts for many managers may not have chan...

The current environment looks to be a realignment of geopolitical expectations across Europe. The rapid and coordinated efforts of Western nations demonstrate this realignment. The monetary path of central banks is changing and an important dynamic to monitor. For further de...

The significant volatility seen in the stock market recently from the Russian war/invasion of Ukraine is further evidence of how this fear dynamic can create short-term panics. Russia is more than a rounding error because the country accounts for about 11% of global energy production....

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from a 15-month low of 53.2 in January to 53.6 in February. The relative weakness of February's global output growth by historical standards contrasted with a more robust expansion of order books recorded during the month. The reduction i...

As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...

Financial markets are reacting as expected to the heightened uncertainty. In the first days of the invasion, global equities plunged while safe-haven assets rallied. In short, while we have anticipated a broader, cyclical turn against the dollar could be underway, this shift in favor ...

Impact of sanctions against Russia. Boomerang effects of sanctions against Russia. Will the U.S. Fed continue its course to raise rates? For further details see: Will Historic Sanctions Against Russia Impact Global Interest Rates?

The volatility surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to evolve. The absolute worst-case scenario - from both a human and economic cost perspective - would be that the fighting extends past the Ukrainian border. There will be continued economic and political unc...

We are tactically upgrading equities as we see greater clarity on the Ukraine conflict and reduced risk of central banks slamming the brakes to curb inflation. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory as Russia invaded Ukraine last week, but rebounded afterward. Bond prices show...