MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 06/21/19

The 10-year Treasury rate has fallen below 2.0% for the first time since November 2016, blowing through the bearish reasons to "short" bonds at the last "blow-off" top. As I have outlined in many of my past research notes, the driving factors behind US Treasury rates are credit risk, ...

QE trade "animal spirits" were back with a vengeance on Thursday, following yet another dovish surprise from the Fed. Let me just say, right off the bat, that there is no "Cliffs Notes" version of this. I'm going to hit the high points for readers on this platform, but it isn't possible to ...

Earlier this year, I penned a research note detailing a data-driven approach to measuring recession risk. You can read that note from February by clicking here . In that note, which you should read prior to this note if you have not done so, I outline the official definition of a recessi...

On Tuesday, just after 4:00 AM in New York, Mario Draghi delivered a series of remarks at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, that sent bond yields and the euro tumbling. If you want to hear it directly from Draghi, you can watch the video here . Draghi's comments were, to a certain...

When the market falls in the trap of wishful thinking History warns us about not confusing what is true versus what we wish to be true , as Ray Dalio identified in his book Principles. Yet wishful thinking - the attribution of reality to what one wants to believe - is one of the most co...

We're Worried Because Any change in interest rates, in either direction, is the major macroeconomic factor we're worried about as investors. It's the great unknown in the current economy, which way are central banks going to jump? As long as we don't see inflation coming then we can assume t...

Treasury bond volatility is picking up. That’s a big red flag for the credit market – and yet another sign that the U.S. economic cycle is slowing. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Macro analyst Darius Dale explain in the clip above how a rise in bond market volatility ...

The common assumption is that bonds are screaming RECESSION right now, while the stock market refuses to hear it. This isn’t entirely true. While the stock market’s long term risk:reward is certainly not bullish, the economic data suggests that a U.S. recession is not imminent. ...

For several years now, officials at the Federal Reserve claim that they are data driven. Well, the markets continue to take the Fed at its word. After favorable words by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials this week, the stock market has took off, bond prices r...

If you wanted to, you could point to news that the US will delay the imposition of higher tariff rates on some Chinese products to June 15 as a catalyst for the Friday morning surge in equities ( SPY ), but it's probably safe to assume that rate cut bets are again playing a big role in propell...