QQD News and Press, Simplify Growth Equity Plus Downside Convexity ETF From 12/27/22

Summary Reserve balances have fallen sharply over the past week. With the reverse repo facility likely to see a big surge this week, reserve balances could drop further. Falling liquidity and rising rates could push stocks sharply lower. If you have been looking for that S...

Summary Technology suffered badly from compares against 2021 results. Currency can impact expenses as well as revenue, and that translation impact on expenses is not always detailed or quantified in an earnings release. The tech weakness and higher Treasury yields are resulting in s...

Summary With rising interest rates and inflation, such would seem a logical assumption. 2022 has been one of the worst years for returns from a 60/40 portfolio. The longer-term view suggests recent performance will not continue due to expanding debts and deficits. Investors should h...

Summary The macroeconomic indicators in the US point a picture of doom and gloom. The Fed seems to be aggressive. More rate hikes may cause a recession. My base-case scenario is that it could be quite moderate. There is always plenty of guesswork to be done when it com...

Summary Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned of a serious recession that could cause significant pain for consumers and investors. Will it be enough to turn Fed Chair Jerome Powell's head? Analysts' bottom-up estimates don't expect a recession in 2023, but they have been markedly off-target i...

Summary I expect S&P 500 2024 forward earnings to be $237.2, which in my opinion, should fetch 17.5X, a multiple more in line with 3.5-4%, 10-year treasuries. I also expect S&P 500 earnings to decline by 5% to about $210 in 2023 and then recover by 13% on a smaller base to $237 ...

Summary More interest rate increases are likely to slow the economy in 2023 as the Federal Reserve works to lower inflation. Earnings are likely to take a hit in 2023 as economic activity slows down. I am forecasting a recession for next year. I will also forecast where I think ...

Summary Consumer spending on services jumped by 0.7% in November from October, seasonally adjusted, and by 8.9% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Spending on services has easily outrun inflation that continues to rage in services, and so this demand fo...

Summary Due to decades of easy monetary policy, the economy is now tightly linked to the growth in asset prices. Namely the stock market and the housing market. When the stock market and housing market falls, this has significant implications for employment, consumption, economic growth...

Summary The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (down 19.3% y-t-d), while the Dow increased 0.9% (down 8.6%). Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 4.1825%. Two-year government yields jumped 14 bps to 4.32%. Japan's Nikkei Equities Index sank 4.7%. Japanese 10-year "JGB" yields jump...