QVMS News and Press, Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 QVM Multi-factor ETF From 12/26/22

Summary The macroeconomic indicators in the US point a picture of doom and gloom. The Fed seems to be aggressive. More rate hikes may cause a recession. My base-case scenario is that it could be quite moderate. There is always plenty of guesswork to be done when it com...

Summary Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned of a serious recession that could cause significant pain for consumers and investors. Will it be enough to turn Fed Chair Jerome Powell's head? Analysts' bottom-up estimates don't expect a recession in 2023, but they have been markedly off-target i...

Summary I expect S&P 500 2024 forward earnings to be $237.2, which in my opinion, should fetch 17.5X, a multiple more in line with 3.5-4%, 10-year treasuries. I also expect S&P 500 earnings to decline by 5% to about $210 in 2023 and then recover by 13% on a smaller base to $237 ...

Summary More interest rate increases are likely to slow the economy in 2023 as the Federal Reserve works to lower inflation. Earnings are likely to take a hit in 2023 as economic activity slows down. I am forecasting a recession for next year. I will also forecast where I think ...

Summary Consumer spending on services jumped by 0.7% in November from October, seasonally adjusted, and by 8.9% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Spending on services has easily outrun inflation that continues to rage in services, and so this demand fo...

Summary Due to decades of easy monetary policy, the economy is now tightly linked to the growth in asset prices. Namely the stock market and the housing market. When the stock market and housing market falls, this has significant implications for employment, consumption, economic growth...

Summary The S&P500 slipped 0.2% (down 19.3% y-t-d), while the Dow increased 0.9% (down 8.6%). Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 4.1825%. Two-year government yields jumped 14 bps to 4.32%. Japan's Nikkei Equities Index sank 4.7%. Japanese 10-year "JGB" yields jump...

Summary Nobody knows which of the many threats and opportunities out there, known and unknown, are going to be the ones that matter and which way they will drive asset prices. Making a prediction forces us to organize many strands of disparate and often contradictory information into a ...

Summary The bulls are still waiting for a Santa rally. Economic data continues to disappoint with Housing remaining in recession. The market is winding down a very disappointing year as the bear market continues. "If you don't know who you are, the stock market is an exp...

Summary New orders for durable goods fell 2.1% in November. In real terms, after adjusting for inflation, real new orders for durable goods decreased. Durable-goods orders have posted a strong recovery from the lockdown recession measured in nominal dollars. By Robert Hu...