UCC News and Press, ProShares Ultra Consumer Services From 09/21/21

Beginning with what is perhaps the best indicator of growth potential in the real economy, as opposed to just the financial economy, the G3 credit impulse is now firmly in negative territory after peaking in the latter stages of 2020. Turning to manufacturing, building permits for new...

Retail sales and food services spending rose 0.7 percent in August following a 1.8 percent drop in July. The three-month annualized growth rate is -0.9 percent though the level of sales is still well above the most recent nine-year trend. From a year ago, total retail sales are up 15....

The Census Bureau, on Thursday, released its estimates for retail sales. Most pay attention only to the seasonally adjusted version, which was surprisingly positive for August 2021. It was widely expected sales would continue to fade, another monthly move downward nonetheless as the l...

Total retail sales - not adjusted for inflation, now a big factor - inched up 0.7% in August from July, to $619 billion (seasonally adjusted), up a stunning 18% from two years ago and 15.1% from a year ago. This wasn’t a proper “rebound,” as it has been widely cal...

AIER’s Leading Indicators Index fell for a fifth consecutive month in August, falling to 58 from 75 in July. The index was at 92 in March. While August marks the twelfth consecutive month above the neutral 50 level, it is also the lowest reading of the past year and the lowest ...

The current slowdown was telegraphed by the bond market, and we’re now in the midst of it. There are any number of reasons to think the economy will just keep fading all the way back to the pre-COVID trend of about 2%. I don’t see any reason to believe we are near recess...

Spending generally increases with income, but not in the naïve lockstep fashion described in economics textbooks. With less debt, people will feel confident spending more. When unemployment, inflation and interest rates are all low, consumers are pretty happy. For furth...

Main Street businesses are those that operate a physical storefront up and down the main streets and side streets of cities and towns all over the world. More than 60 percent of the Main Street businesses that also sell online and use third-party aggregators say that their overall sal...

The 10-year Treasury yield declined a bit during the Afghanistan crisis, so all eyes are now on the Fed to see how new realities will impact monetary policy. The Fed released its latest FOMC minutes, which revealed a disagreement within the FOMC about when QE tapering will begin. On T...

Could the Fed begin paring back asset purchases soon? U.S. July retail sales tick lower. Are consumers still in good shape? 3 key risks to China’s economic outlook. For further details see: Almost Time To Taper? What The Latest Fed Meeting Minutes Reveal