USLB News and Press, Invesco Russell 1000 Low Beta Equal Weight ETF From 01/23/23

Summary U.S. equity indexes, having declined sharply in 2022, are fighting the Fed as 2023 begins. The inverted yield curve argues for recession, and equities appear to have discounted a significant probability of at least a mild recession. The bottom line is that, unlike the last f...

Summary When focusing on what we believe are the primary market signals, the “condition our condition is in” is uncertain. Quality is an increasingly important risk factor as investors refocus on fundamentals during uncertain times. U.S. small-cap stocks may have alrea...

Summary For several months, we have said that a slowing of inflation could provide a temporary tailwind to equity markets, but that weakening growth will eventually hit them with a stronger headwind. Tumbling PPI suggests that companies are starting to struggle to pass on rising costs. ...

Summary Everyone wants to buy bonds right now because everyone knows the US is headed for recession. But neither the 10-year, the 2-year or shorter-term yields are currently falling at a pace that we would expect just prior to recession. If we go into recession you’ll make mo...

Summary We are seeing a big rally in the biggest losers of 2022. Has the tide turned in the market? Investors are taking on risk. There is evidence to make that case that this rally is something more. On the other hand, investors have moved on from the inflation story and moved on t...

Summary China’s reopening, lower energy prices and cooling inflation reinforce our long-term positive view on equities. Yet, we think market optimism has come too soon. Stocks paused their rally and bond yields steadied after recession worries returned. We think we are starting t...

Summary At the start of 2022, the S&P 500 was at 4766.18, up from 3756.07 at the start of 2021. Historical risk premiums are viewed as the best estimates for the future. Stocks started the new year closer to fair value than being under or overvalued. It is the nature o...

Summary The past week saw some of the strongest selling pressure in over a month, but buyers stepped in at the end of the week to arrest the decline, painting a weekly bar with a long lower tail. This is one of the classic signs of potential accumulation/buying pressure. Overall, the we...

Summary Past episodes of debt ceiling histrionics have resulted in temporary government shutdowns. With both sides seemingly dug in, a repeat of the 2011 episode cannot be ruled out. In 2010, republicans controlled the House and demanded that President Obama negotiate over deficit r...

Summary Central banker prudence and inflation-fighting resolve should err on the side of not conveying a rapidly concluding tightening cycle. Financial conditions almost immediately began to loosen globally, a loosening that has gathered important momentum early in 2023. Systemic ri...