Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev reiterated the Underperform rating on Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN), raising the price target to $31 from $27.
Following an upswing in COIN shares (+170% YTD), the analyst sees a significant downside from here as lingering retail fatigue threatens COIN's most attractive revenue stream over the longer term.
However, the analyst also sees several near-term positives, including higher spreads, stabilizing retail market share vs. Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) in 3Q, and improving cost controls.
Retail activity remains the single greatest determinant of COIN's revenue and profitability.
For perspective, retail comprised 95% of COIN's transaction revenue (and two-thirds of total ...