2024-05-03 07:00:00 ET
Summary
- The stock market is unpredictable, and even professionals struggle to understand it.
- Stocks have historically been the best-performing asset, but short-term returns are influenced by sentiment, momentum, and luck.
- According to JPMorgan, 96% of stocks don't beat bonds, and almost half of US stocks suffer "permanent, catastrophic" declines of 70+%.
- Safety, quality, and dependability are the hallmarks of the dividend aristocrats, companies with 25+ year dividend growth streaks, though even these can and do fail.
- Combining credit ratings and S&P long-term risk management ratings, I highlight 10 SWAN aristocrats that average 3% yield, an A-credit rating, a 43-year dividend growth streak, and 95% percentile S&P risk management, the top 5% of all global companies. They are expected to potentially deliver 12% long-term returns and income growth, similar to what they've delivered since 1996.
If you've ever been confused about the stock market, you're not alone! Even the "professionals" really don't know what the heck is going on.
Consider 2023.
In January, we celebrated a "soft landing." Stocks were soaring.
By February, a blowout jobs report worried the market about a "no landing" and the Fed having to keep hiking rates.
Then, the regional banking crisis in March sent bonds soaring, and we were back to "hard landing" recession fears.
By April, the lack of other bank failures and strong tech earnings had the market back to "soft landing"....
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For further details see:
10 Sleep-Well-At-Night Dividend Aristocrats Perfect For Whatever's Coming Next