The published data suggest moderate growth remains intact, but the rearview mirror has rarely been so meaningless for assessing the likely path of the economic trend in the months ahead. As the coronavirus blowback spreads, the US economy is slowing, and in many sectors grinding to a halt. The result, of course, is that a recession appears inevitable, perhaps a severe one. The optimistic view is that the downturn will be short and the bounceback will be strong. But economists are now in agreement: output will probably contract.
"The problem for the U.S. economy is