2024-06-03 15:12:42 ET
Summary
- Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he left.
- Chinese competitors pose threats not only in smartphones but also in tablets.
- The Vision Pro headset, which was aggressively promoted by the company, appears to be a big failure as the company is significantly downgrading its sales volume forecasts for the device.
- My valuation analysis suggests that the stock is 30% overvalued, which means there is a strong selling opportunity.
Investment thesis
My previous bearish call about Apple Inc. ( AAPL ) kept up well until the company announced its record $100 billion-plus buyback plan . It was absorbed by the market with great optimism and the stock rallied by around 11% since then. However, to me, this buyback signals that the company likely cannot offer shareholders anything beyond it. Apple was well-known for its ability to create "Blue Oceans" during the Steve Jobs era, but it currently appears that the company struggles to differentiate and create brand new multi-billion industries. Products sales continue to decline across all offerings, as competition intensifies and the aggressively promoted Vision Pro did not fly, as I forecasted in my previous articles ....
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Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore