Assured Guaranty (AGO) is a compounding machine. The company boasts at $10 billion plus investment portfolio, it operates in an oligopolistic industry, and it has smart management. The negative investment thesis has never been truly coherent of substantiated by actual numbers. Like with any insurer, losses will occur, and the actual number will take time to firmly establish as variables change. One can input just about whatever loss estimates they want, but it is very difficult to justify the current valuation of AGO stock, trading at just over half of its adjusted book