First-in, first-out
As COVID-19 cases continue to accelerate in Europe and North America and the economies go into lockdown, China is benefitting from being first-in and first-out, with its economy now restarting. Pollution emissions data from China’s top 5 cities, amongst other data, shows a recovery beginning.
Additionally, China's ongoing policy flexibility and relatively closed economy and stock-market provide some protection to the coming global recession. The worse-than-expected -13.5% yoy fall in China’ January-February industrial production and -20.5% in retail sales is both a harsh reminder of the immediate economic impact, but also what is