- World Conventional Oil output peaked at a centered twelve-month average (CTMA) of 74193 kb/d in July 2016.
- The general trend for non-OPEC conventional oil has been an annual decline rate of about 48 kb/d over this period, and for OPEC, output has increased at an annual rate of 171 kb/d over the same period.
- My expectation is the new peak will be due to an increase in unconventional oil, both tight oil and Canadian oil sands, with an increase from 10.5 Mb/d in 2021 to 15.4 Mb/d in 2029 as shown in the chart below.
For further details see:
Decline In World Conventional Oil Output And Peak Oil