2024-07-03 06:36:15 ET
Summary
- Oil market expected to shift from short supply in 3Q 2024 to surplus in 4Q 2024, leading to lower oil price forecast.
- Russia's oil production cuts and economic downturn impacting oil demand, leading to changes in market balance outlook.
- Exxon Mobil's deal with Pioneer Natural Resources expected to boost production capacity and reduce costs, leading to revised revenue and EBITDA forecasts.
Investment thesis
We have covered the stock before, and there have been a number of changes since last quarter, which are the subject of this report:
- We expect the oil market to have a short supply in 3Q 2024, but swing to a surplus in 4Q 2024. We have lowered our oil price forecast for 2024 from an average of $86.3/bbl to $84.5/bbl.
- Both the TTF and Henry Hub forecasts have also been lowered for 2024.
- Given the minor reduction in the projected global demand for natural gas, we are lowering the average oil and natgas volumes available for sale from 3891 kbpd to 3845 kbpd for 2024, and from 3929 kbpd to 3877 kbpd for 2025.
Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
For further details see:
Exxon Mobil: Hold Rating Maintained On Oil And Gas Macro Outlook