- Ferguson is expected to post high-teens organic revenue growth for the fiscal fourth quarter, but many of its peers/comps have exceeded revenue expectations by 10% or more.
- U.S. residential remodeling activity remains strong, though possibly with a transition from DIY projects to contractor-led projects; aging U.S. homes and strong property values should incentivize ongoing spending.
- Commercial activity and infrastructure should pick up in 2022.
- Ferguson is a borderline call today, with a mediocre DCF-based projected return but a stronger multiples-based fair value; derating across the space is a bigger threat than underlying performance.
For further details see:
Ferguson Executing Well In A Hot Residential Market